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	<title>Bay Area Real Estate Market Blog &#124; Pacific Union International &#187; housing</title>
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	<link>http://blog.pacunion.com</link>
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		<title>Confidence in Rising Home Prices Tops 50%</title>
		<link>http://blog.pacunion.com/confidence-in-rising-home-prices-tops-50-percent/</link>
		<comments>http://blog.pacunion.com/confidence-in-rising-home-prices-tops-50-percent/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 09 May 2013 15:01:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Pacific Union</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Conditions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Insights]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Real Estate News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bay area]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[confidence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Doug Duncan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fannie Mae]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[housing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[optimism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pacific Union]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[San Francisco]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sonoma Valley]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[survey]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.pacunion.com/?p=14509</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[An April housing survey by Fannie Mae found that 51 percent of Americans expect home prices to climb at least 3 percent over the next year, a big jump in confidence from a year ago, when only 32 percent were optimistic prices would rise.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/61423903@N06/7382239368/"><img style=' float: right; padding: 4px; margin: 0 0 2px 7px;'  class="alignright size-medium wp-image-14512" title="arrows" src="http://blog.pacunion.com/wp-content/uploads/arrows-300x195.jpg" alt="Image of arrows pointing up" width="300" height="195" /></a>Confidence in the housing industry passed a milestone recently, with more than half of all Americans now expecting home prices to rise within the next year.</p>
<p>An <a href="http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/research-and-analysis/housing-monthly.html?" target="_blank">April housing survey</a> by the mortgage agency Fannie Mae found that 51 percent expect home prices to climb at least 3 percent. A year earlier, only 32 percent of those surveyed were optimistic prices would rise.</p>
<p>“Crossing the 50 percent threshold marks a significant milestone as most Americans believe a housing recovery is truly occurring throughout the country,&#8221; said Fannie Mae chief economist Doug Duncan, in a statement accompanying the survey.</p>
<p>That optimism is borne out in the Bay Area, where double-digit increases in home values have become the norm and economists say <a href="http://blog.pacunion.com/bay-area-economy-home-prices-attract-attention/" target="_blank">the region&#8217;s strong economy</a> will support further increases for years to come.</p>
<p>Pacific Union&#8217;s <a href="http://blog.pacunion.com/pacific-union-april-2013-real-estate-update/" target="_blank">April Real Estate Update</a> noted that the median price for single-family homes reached $1 million in San Francisco for the first time in more than five years and the median price in our Sonoma Valley region jumped 65 percent over the past year.</p>
<p>In another encouraging sign from Fannie Mae&#8217;s survey, the share of respondents who said now is a good time to sell has doubled over the past year, climbing to 30 percent last month.</p>
<p>Americans’ increasing optimism toward the selling market may bode well for continued improvement in housing activity, Fannie Mae said, as recent market data suggest that five out of eight people who buy a home first have to sell one.</p>
<p>&#8220;Many homeowners who have been underwater are gradually returning to positive equity, and selling is now becoming an available and attractive option again,&#8221; Duncan said.</p>
<p>Other highlights from Fannie Mae&#8217;s survey:</p>
<ul>
<li>Those who believe home prices will go down over the next year held steady at a record low of 10 percent for the fourth month in a row.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>The share of respondents who said mortgage rates will go up fell 3 percentage points to 43 percent, while those who say they will go down increased slightly to 7 percent.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Those who said they would buy if they were going to move increased slightly to 65 percent.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>At 39 percent, the share of respondents who say the economy is on the right track increased 4 percentage points over March.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Those who said their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago held steady at 20 percent.</li>
</ul>
<p><em>(<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/61423903@N06/7382239368/" target="_blank">Illustration</a> courtesy of FutUndBeidl, via Flickr.)</em></p>
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		<title>Housing Leads California, U.S. Recovery, Signals Strong Sales in 2013 &#8212; UCLA Analysis</title>
		<link>http://blog.pacunion.com/housing-leads-california-u-s-recovery-signals-strong-sales-in-2013-ucla-analysis/</link>
		<comments>http://blog.pacunion.com/housing-leads-california-u-s-recovery-signals-strong-sales-in-2013-ucla-analysis/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 14 Mar 2013 15:01:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Pacific Union</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Conditions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Insights]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Real Estate Trends]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bay area]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[California]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[California Association of Realtors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Shulman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[home sales]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[housing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jerry Nickelsburg]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[jobs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kiplinger]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Realtor.com]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[UCLA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[UCLA Anderson Forecast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[unemployment]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.pacunion.com/?p=13234</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The prospects for robust real estate activity in the coming year just got a shot in the arm with a report from UCLA’s business school that predicts a steady drop in unemployment across California and continued improvements in the state and national economy.
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/wwworks/2987611025/in/set-72157608035966422"><img style=' float: right; padding: 4px; margin: 0 0 2px 7px;'  class="alignright size-medium wp-image-13250" title="toyhouses" src="http://blog.pacunion.com/wp-content/uploads/toyhouses4-300x210.jpg" alt="Monopoly toy houses" width="300" height="210" /></a>The prospects for robust real estate activity in the coming year just got a shot in the arm with a report from UCLA’s business school that predicts a steady drop in unemployment across California and continued improvements in the state and national economy.</p>
<p>“Growth will be buoyed by a rapidly recovering housing market,&#8221; wrote UCLA economist David Shulman in the highly regarded <a href="http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ucla-anderson-forecast-national-economy-on-the-rise-california-employment-expected-to-improve-197724571.html" target="_blank">UCLA Anderson Forecast</a>, released Wednesday. &#8220;Housing led the downturn; it is now leading the upturn.”</p>
<p>Housing remains affordable because of low prices and mortgage rates, Shulman said, and these factors, coupled with pent-up demand, will result in more than 1 million housing starts nationwide in 2013.</p>
<p>Home sales are closely tied to economic conditions, and residential sales and prices have matched the Bay Area economy’s remarkable recovery, starting in early 2012.</p>
<p>California and the nation have moved slower than the Bay Area in their recovery, but growth will accelerate over the next several years.</p>
<p>&#8220;The factors which have driven California employment and income growth to higher rates than the U.S. are still in play,&#8221; economist Jerry Nickelsburg said in the report. &#8220;As the world economy improves, and as investment in the U.S. picks up once again, California will once again have a disproportionate share of that improvement. Our expectation is for this to occur in 2014 and to accelerate in 2015.&#8221;</p>
<p>Employment growth is expected to remain steady through 2015, helping to push the statewide unemployment rate down to an average 9.6 percent this year, 8.4 percent in 2014, and 7.2 percent in 2015.</p>
<p>In the Bay Area, high-tech jobs, tourism, and international trade have kept unemployment rates among the lowest in the state, and those numbers are expected to keep falling. The unemployment rate stood at 6.5 percent in San Francisco in December and ranged from 5.5 percent in Marin County to 8.2 percent in Alameda and Contra Costa counties.</p>
<p>The UCLA Anderson Forecast was one of three recent reports to predict continued growth in the housing market.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://realtormag.realtor.org/daily-news/2013/03/12/kiplinger-housing-recovery-firmly-underway" target="_blank">Kiplinger forecasting firm</a> said the U.S. housing recovery is &#8220;firmly&#8221; under way, with all indicators &#8220;on the way up.&#8221; Separately, the <a href="http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm" target="_blank">U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics</a> said residential construction jobs continue to multiply.</p>
<p>These reports follow earlier analysis predicting strong home sales in the Bay Area.</p>
<p>Last week Realtor.com listed the <a href="http://blog.pacunion.com/in-bay-area-numbers-add-up-in-sellers-favor/" target="_blank">San Francisco metropolitan area</a> among the top five places in the United States for homeowners to put their properties on the market in 2013, thanks to robust sales prices. Two weeks ago the California Association of Realtors reported a <a href="http://blog.pacunion.com/california-housing-shortage-holds-back-sales/" target="_blank">31.1 percent sales jump</a> in San Francisco in January.</p>
<p><em>(<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/wwworks/2987611025/in/set-72157608035966422" target="_blank">Photo</a> courtesy of Woodleywonderworks, via Flickr.)</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Real Estate Roundup: Mortgage Rules to Loosen While Home Prices Keep Rising</title>
		<link>http://blog.pacunion.com/real-estate-roundup-mortgage-rules-to-loosen-while-home-prices-keep-rising/</link>
		<comments>http://blog.pacunion.com/real-estate-roundup-mortgage-rules-to-loosen-while-home-prices-keep-rising/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Mar 2013 15:01:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Pacific Union</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Conditions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Insights]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Real Estate News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Real Estate Trends]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CoreLogic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Stiff]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Doug Duncan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fannie Mae]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fiserv]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[home loans]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[home prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[homebuyers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[housing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[lending]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Moody's]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mortgage standatds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[recovery]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Redfin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[student loans]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[survey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Truliam ZipRealty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[wealth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zillow]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.pacunion.com/?p=13138</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Recent news of interest to homebuyers, home sellers, and the home-curious includes a promising report that tight mortgage standards will loosen in 2013. Also, government data suggests home prices will continue to rise for at least another five years, and the Federal Reserve says Americans have finally recovered the $16 trillion in wealth they lost during the recent recession.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/68751915@N05/6808984167/"><img style=' float: right; padding: 4px; margin: 0 0 2px 7px;'  class="alignright size-medium wp-image-13158" title="homeprices" src="http://blog.pacunion.com/wp-content/uploads/homeprices2-244x300.jpg" alt="Illustation of a house on a stack of money" width="244" height="300" /></a>Here’s a look at recent news of interest to homebuyers, home sellers, and the home-curious:</em></p>
<p><strong>MORTGAGE STANDARDS TO LOOSEN IN 2013</strong><br />
Tight mortgage standards that have bedeviled borrowers for more than a year <a href="http://www.housingwire.com/news/2013/03/04/slight-opening-credit-spigot-aids-housing-outlook" target="_blank">are starting to loosen</a>, and the trend will continue through 2013, according to a report from Moody&#8217;s Analytics.</p>
<p>The housing recovery that began last year &#8221;promises improvements this year as the drivers of tough credit standards reverse,&#8221; a Moody&#8217;s analyst noted. &#8220;Rising house prices give lenders more breathing room to extend credit.&#8221;</p>
<p>Lending will remain tight by historical standards, but  &#8221;improved consumer credit quality combined with steady growth in jobs, low mortgage interest rates, and modestly rising house prices makes it clear that more households will be able to qualify for a mortgage,&#8221; Moody&#8217;s said.</p>
<p>&#8220;Greater credit availability will in turn help drive stronger home sales and stronger price appreciation and help keep the housing market and the larger economy on an upward path.&#8221;</p>
<hr />
<p><strong>RISING HOME PRICES THROUGH 2017</strong><br />
Home prices <a href="http://rismedia.com/2013-03-06/home-prices-expected-to-rise-at-least-3-3-percent-annually-through-2017/" target="_blank">will continue rising at least through 2017</a>, climbing an average 3.7 percent between the third quarters of 2013 and 2014 and then 3.3 percent annually over the next three years.</p>
<p>That optimistic analysis from the research firm Fiserv was based on data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency.</p>
<p>&#8220;Although some recent real estate activity has been speculative, it seems as if buyers have more realistic expectations about housing market returns after having lived through the largest housing market crash in U.S. history,&#8221; Fiserv economist David Stiff said in a statement.</p>
<p>Another recent report, from CoreLogic, said <a href="http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/news/corelogic-home-price-index-rises-by-almost-10-percent-year-over-year-in-january.aspx" target="_blank">U.S. home prices in January were up 9.7 percent</a> from a year earlier, the biggest annual increase in nearly seven years, while prices rose 14.1 percent in California.</p>
<hr />
<p><strong>U.S. HOUSEHOLD WEALTH REGAINS PEAK</strong><br />
Here&#8217;s another sign that 2013 promises to be a banner year for housing: The Federal Reserve says surging stock prices and steady home appreciation have finally allowed Americans to <a href="http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hMr8Jc3SE7BMf7oAKZtReWzg7e_Q?docId=1ab2e1357bde47cfb826a3a8e30757f4" target="_blank">recover the $16 trillion in wealth</a> they lost during the recent recession.</p>
<p>The gains are helping boost the U.S. economy and could lead to additional spending and growth, the Fed said.</p>
<hr />
<p><strong>HOUSING A BRIGHT SPOT IN SURVEY</strong><br />
Americans are <a href="http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/about-us/media/corporate-news/2013/5935.html" target="_blank">optimistic about the housing recovery</a>, while opinions on the overall economy remain mixed.</p>
<p>A monthly survey by Fannie Mae found that the percentage of people who believe home prices will rise over the next year reached the highest level since the survey began in June 2010.</p>
<p>&#8220;Despite fiscal headwinds and political uncertainty, consumer sentiment toward housing is robust and continues to gather strength,” Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae said in a statement. &#8220;We expect home prices to firm further amid a durable housing recovery, gradually reducing the population of underwater borrowers and helping to boost the share of consumers who say that now is a good time to sell.&#8221;</p>
<hr />
<p><strong>ZILLOW, TRULIA LISTINGS CHALLENGED</strong><br />
The <a href="http://www.ziprealty.com/documents/Data-Quality.pdf" target="_blank">accuracy of real estate listings</a> on Zillow and Trulia websites are being challenged in a report from rival ZipRealty.</p>
<p>After analyzing listings in 50 selected ZIP codes in San Francisco and 12 other cities, ZipRealty said more than 15 percent of homes shown for sale on Zillow and Trulia were no longer on the market, and the sites failed to identify up to 30 percent of homes listed for sale in an MLS as being on the market.</p>
<p>Inman News noted in a news story that ZipRealty&#8217;s report <a href="http://www.inman.com/news/2013/03/6/accuracy-zillow-trulia-listing-data-under-fire-again" target="_blank">followed similar claims</a> by Redfin. Inman noted that both Zillow and Trulia questioned the accuracy of the reports.</p>
<hr />
<p><strong>HOUSING HURT BY STUDENT LOAN DEBT</strong><br />
Student loan debt is being blamed for the <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/100513344" target="_blank">lowest level of young homebuyers</a> in more than a decade.</p>
<p>A report from the New York Federal Reserve said increasing numbers of young college graduates are being denied home loans because of their debt load &#8212; estimated at nearly $1 trillion nationwide.</p>
<p><em>(<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/68751915@N05/6808984167/" target="_blank">Illustration</a> courtesy of 401(K) 2013, via Flickr.)</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>California Housing Shortage Holds Back Sales</title>
		<link>http://blog.pacunion.com/california-housing-shortage-holds-back-sales/</link>
		<comments>http://blog.pacunion.com/california-housing-shortage-holds-back-sales/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Feb 2013 16:01:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Pacific Union</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Bay Area]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Conditions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Real Estate Trends]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alameda County]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bay area]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[C.A.R.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[California Association of Realtors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Contra Costa County]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Don Faught]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Freddie Mac]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[home sales]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[housing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marin County]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Napa County]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[San Francisco]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sonoma County]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.pacunion.com/?p=12884</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A typical seasonal slowdown coupled with an exceptionally tight supply of available homes for sale held back California’s housing market at the start of 2013.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_12903" class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 216px;  border: 1px solid #dddddd; background-color: #f3f3f3; padding-top: 4px; margin: 10px; text-align:center; float: right;"><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/rezlab/3711956124/"><img class="size-medium wp-image-12903" title="stackedhomes" src="http://blog.pacunion.com/wp-content/uploads/stackedhomes2-206x300.jpg" alt="Crowded homes in San Francisco" width="206" height="300" /></a><p style=' padding: 0 4px 5px; margin: 0;'  class="wp-caption-text">Between January 2012 and January 2013, San Francisco home sales jumped 31.1 percent, a marked departure from the statewide norm.</p></div>
<p>A typical seasonal slowdown coupled with an exceptionally tight supply of available homes for sale <a href="http://www.car.org/newsstand/newsreleases/2013releases/jansales" target="_blank">held back California’s housing market</a> at the start of 2013.</p>
<p>Home sales in January were down 6 percent from December and 3.9 percent from a year earlier, the California Association of Realtors reported.</p>
<p>“A rush by home buyers trying to complete sales of higher-priced homes by the end of last year in order to avoid capital gains increases pulled forward sales that might have closed in January instead,” C.A.R. President Don Faught said in a statement. “Additionally, the extreme shortage of homes for sale continues to hinder California&#8217;s housing market.”</p>
<p>The statewide median price of an existing, single-family home fell 8.1 percent to $337,040 from December to January. But January&#8217;s price was up 24.1 percent from a year earlier, marking the 11th consecutive month of annual price increases.</p>
<p>In the Bay Area, sales slowed considerably from December to January, ranging from a 16.1 percent drop in <a href="http://www.pacunion.com/bay-area-real-estate/neighborhoods/napa-county/" target="_blank">Napa County</a> to a 44.7 percent drop in <a href="http://www.pacunion.com/bay-area-real-estate/neighborhoods/marin-county/" target="_blank">Marin County</a>.</p>
<p>But a more direct year-over-year comparison, shows an incredible 31.1 percent sales jump in the red-hot <a href="http://www.pacunion.com/bay-area-real-estate/neighborhoods/-/san-francisco/" target="_blank">San Francisco</a> market from January 2012 to January 2013, with more modest declines in other Bay Area counties.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://blog.pacunion.com/wp-content/uploads/JanHomeSales.jpg"><img style=' display: block; margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto;'  class=" wp-image-12894 aligncenter" title="JanHomeSales" src="http://blog.pacunion.com/wp-content/uploads/JanHomeSales.jpg" alt="January Bay Area Home Sales chart" width="582" height="286" /></a></p>
<p>For more data on mortgage rates and sales velocity, read the C.A.R.&#8217;s full January housing <a href="http://www.car.org/newsstand/newsreleases/2013releases/jansales" target="_blank">report</a>.</p>
<p><em>(<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/rezlab/3711956124/" target="_blank">San Francisco</a> photo courtesy of Greg Balzer, via Flickr.)</em></p>
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		<title>Real Estate Roundup: New Mortgage Rules, Bold Housing Forecast, Foreclosure Cash</title>
		<link>http://blog.pacunion.com/real-estate-roundup-new-mortgage-rules-bold-housing-forecast-foreclosure-cash/</link>
		<comments>http://blog.pacunion.com/real-estate-roundup-new-mortgage-rules-bold-housing-forecast-foreclosure-cash/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 14 Jan 2013 16:01:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Pacific Union</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Real Estate News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Real Estate Trends]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Consumer Financial Protection Bureau]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[foreclosure]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[housing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Inman News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mark Zandi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Moody's Analytics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mortgage]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[National Association of Home Builders]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[recovery]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[settlement]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Smart Growth America]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wall Street]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wall Street Journal]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.pacunion.com/?p=11732</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Here’s a look at recent news of interest to homebuyers, home sellers, and the home-curious, including new rules that will reshape the mortgage industry and commentary from a Wall Street analyst who declares "a housing renaissance has begun."]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/68751915@N05/6809000715/"><img style=' float: right; padding: 4px; margin: 0 0 2px 7px;'  class="alignright  wp-image-11743" title="HouseofCash" src="http://blog.pacunion.com/wp-content/uploads/HouseofCash-274x300.jpg" alt="House of cash" width="274" height="300" /></a>Here’s a look at recent news of interest to homebuyers, home sellers, and the home-curious:</p>
<p><strong>NEW MORTGAGE RULES ANNOUNCED</strong><br />
Federal officials released new mortgage lending rules last week in an effort to curb risky lending practices and make it easier for borrowers to know exactly what they&#8217;re getting into.</p>
<p>The new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau rules will reshape the U.S. mortgage industry, changing the process homebuyers go through to obtain home loans. Their ultimate goal: keep lenders from giving loans to borrowers who can&#8217;t afford to pay them off, which was widely blamed for the mortgage meltdown that ultimately led to the recent recession.</p>
<p>The rules take effect next January, but the debate over their impact has already begun. Check out articles from <a href="http://www.inman.com/news/2013/01/10/new-rule-will-require-mortgage-lenders-verify-borrowers-ability-repay" target="_blank">Inman News</a> and <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2013/01/10/ten-questions-on-the-new-mortgage-rules/" target="_blank">The Wall Street Journal</a> for smart summaries of the situation.</p>
<hr />
<p><strong>HOUSING IS KEY TO ECONOMIC RECOVERY</strong><br />
What&#8217;s the outlook for real estate in 2013?</p>
<p>Wall Street analysts typically are a conservative bunch, but a <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/realestate/housings-renaissance-could-lead-an-economic-recovery/2013/01/03/304e4c40-488c-11e2-820e-17eefac2f939_story.html" target="_blank">recent column in The Washington Post</a> by Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody&#8217;s Analytics, absolutely gushes with optimism for the coming year. Here&#8217;s how it opens:</p>
<p>&#8220;A housing renaissance has begun. This may be hard to believe after the dizzying, six-year-long crash in home sales, construction and house prices. But housing turned the corner last year, and it will take off in 2013.</p>
<p>&#8220;Driving this optimism is one certainty: Owning a home has never been as attractive.&#8221;</p>
<hr />
<p><strong>FORECLOSURE CASH ON THE WAY</strong><br />
Nearly 4 million homeowners will be contacted within the next three months to receive cash payments under last week&#8217;s <a href="http://federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20130107a.htm" target="_blank">$8.5 billion foreclosure-abuse settlement</a> among federal regulators and 10 large banks.</p>
<p>Homeowners who faced foreclosure in 2009 and 2010 will split $3.3 billion in direct payments and $5.2 billion in other assistance, such as loan modifications and forgiveness of deficiency judgments. Individuals are expected to receive compensation ranging from several hundred dollars up to $125,000.</p>
<hr />
<p><strong>BUYERS STAYING IN HOMES LONGER</strong><br />
Homebuyers are <a href="http://www.nahb.org/fileUpload_details.aspx?contentTypeID=3&amp;contentID=194717&amp;subContentID=482087&amp;channelID=311" target="_blank">staying in their homes an average of 13 years</a> before moving out, according to a report from the National Association of Home Builders.</p>
<p>First-time homebuyers stay in the same home a shorter amount of time — 11-and-a-half years — compared with 15 years for homebuyers who have owned a home previously, the trade group said.</p>
<p>Homebuyer mobility has been declining since 2007, when a typical homebuyer stayed 12 years in the same home.</p>
<hr />
<p><strong>BILLIONS FOR REAL ESTATE</strong><br />
The U.S. government spends <a href="http://www.smartgrowthamerica.org/2013/01/08/new-report-calls-for-examination-of-federal-real-estate-spending/" target="_blank">$450 billion a year</a> on homeowners and the housing industry, including direct spending, loan guarantees, and tax breaks like the mortgage-interest deduction, according to a report from Smart Growth America, which advocates for planned growth in urban neighborhoods and for public transit.</p>
<p>The organization counted $2.23 trillion in federal real estate spending from 2007 to 2011: $1.36 trillion in loans and loan guarantees for residential and commercial construction, $680 billion in tax credits, and $187 billion in development grants and subsidies.</p>
<p><em>(<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/68751915@N05/6809000715/" target="_blank">Illustration</a> courtesy of 401(K) 2013, via Flickr.)</em></p>
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		<title>Real Estate Week: Big Turnaround in Oakland</title>
		<link>http://blog.pacunion.com/real-estate-week-big-turnaround-in-oakland/</link>
		<comments>http://blog.pacunion.com/real-estate-week-big-turnaround-in-oakland/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Jan 2013 16:01:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Pacific Union</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Industry Information]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Real Estate Trends]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[California Association of Realtors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[distressed]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fiscal cliff]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[foreclosure]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[housing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ken Harney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oakland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[San Francisco]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trulia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[turnaround]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.pacunion.com/?p=11536</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Recent news of interest to homebuyers, home sellers, and the home-curious: December asking prices for homes in Oakland are up 21 percent over the past two years. Also: Look for fewer distressed-home sales in California and more equity sales.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_11546" class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 306px;  border: 1px solid #dddddd; background-color: #f3f3f3; padding-top: 4px; margin: 10px; text-align:center; float: right;"><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/enerva/4431852229/"><img class="size-medium wp-image-11546" title="skyline" src="http://blog.pacunion.com/wp-content/uploads/skyline-296x300.jpg" alt="View from Oakland's Skyline Boulevard" width="296" height="300" /></a><p style=' padding: 0 4px 5px; margin: 0;'  class="wp-caption-text">Asking prices are up 21 percent for homes in Oakland.</p></div>
<p><em>Here’s a look at news this week of interest to homebuyers, home sellers, and the home-curious:</em></p>
<p><strong>BIG TURNAROUND IN OAKLAND HOME PRICES</strong><br />
The Oakland metro area ranked third in the United States in December for a <a href="http://trends.truliablog.com/2013/01/trulia-price-rent-monitors-dec-2012/" target="_blank">strong turnaround</a> in its housing market, according to research by Trulia Inc.</p>
<p>Asking prices for homes in Oakland had dropped 8.4 percent, year over year, in December 2011 but roared back in December 2012 to post a 12.7 percent gain &#8212; a 21.1-percent turnaround over two years, Trulia reported Thursday.</p>
<p>In the San Francisco metro area, December asking prices rose 11.9 percent from a year earlier. The national average was up 5.1 percent.</p>
<p>Other bits from Trulia&#8217;s monthly data dump: Rents in Oakland increased 12.6 percent in Oakland and 5.2 percent in San Francisco. The national average rose 5.2 percent.</p>
<hr />
<p><strong>FEWER DISTRESSED SALES, MORE EQUITY SALES</strong><br />
<a href="http://www.car.org/newsstand/newsreleases/2012releases/novpending" target="_blank">Pending home sales in California</a> slipped 1 percent in November from a year earlier as sales of distressed properties &#8212; foreclosures, bank-owned properties, and short sales &#8211;  dropped precipitously, according to a report from the California Association of Realtors.</p>
<p>Pending sales of distressed properties were down 15 percent in November, year over year, while equity sales rose by the same percentage.</p>
<p>Pending home sales are forward-looking indicators of future home sales activity, providing information on the future direction of the market.</p>
<hr />
<p><strong>HARNEY: A WIN FOR HOUSING &#8212; FOR NOW</strong><br />
Veteran real estate columnist <a href="http://www.inman.com/buyers-sellers/columnists/kenharney/fiscal-cliff-bill-addresses-some-key-housing-issues" target="_blank">Ken Harney</a> says homebuyers, sellers, builders, and real estate professionals came out winners in the &#8220;fiscal cliff&#8221; budget bill that cleared Congress on Tuesday.</p>
<p>Homeowners in the highest income brackets, however, will be writing bigger checks to Uncle Sam, and Harney warns that budget talks this summer could bring several &#8220;settled&#8221; provisions back to the table.</p>
<p><em>(<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/enerva/4431852229/" target="_blank">Oakland Hills</a> photo is courtesy of Avrene, via Flickr.)</em></p>
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		<title>Washington&#8217;s Budget Deal Spares Housing</title>
		<link>http://blog.pacunion.com/washingtons-budget-deal-spares-housing/</link>
		<comments>http://blog.pacunion.com/washingtons-budget-deal-spares-housing/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 Jan 2013 16:02:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Pacific Union</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Industry Information]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Real Estate News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[budget]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Congress]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fiscal cliff]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[housing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mortgage]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.pacunion.com/?p=11516</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Congress stepped back from the fiscal cliff without eliminating several tax provisions that favor homeowners and the housing market.
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_11525" class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 310px;  border: 1px solid #dddddd; background-color: #f3f3f3; padding-top: 4px; margin: 10px; text-align:center; float: right;"><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/vpickering/4810433202/"><img class="size-medium wp-image-11525" title="capitol" src="http://blog.pacunion.com/wp-content/uploads/capitol-300x196.jpg" alt="U.S. Capitol" width="300" height="196" /></a><p style=' padding: 0 4px 5px; margin: 0;'  class="wp-caption-text">At the last minute, Congress stepped back from the fiscal cliff.</p></div>
<p>Homeowners can breathe a sigh of relief now that Congress has resolved contentious budget negotiations without eliminating several tax provisions favoring the housing market.</p>
<p>The popular mortgage-interest tax deduction was spared in a last-minute agreement to step back from severe spending cuts and tax increases &#8212; the so-called fiscal cliff &#8211; thereby allowing homeowners to continue deducting interest payments from taxable income.</p>
<p>The tax break has been in effect for 26 years, and several plans to reduce the federal budget deficit called for scaling back or eliminating the deduction. Economists and housing industry analysts countered that such a move could stop the housing recovery in its tracks.</p>
<p>Underwater homeowners also scored a victory in Tuesday&#8217;s budget agreement. Congress voted to extend by one year a provision that exempts forgiven mortgage debt from taxes, thereby encouraging short sales instead of foreclosures.</p>
<p>Congress also restored a tax deduction for mortgage-insurance premiums that had expired at the end of 2011.</p>
<p>For more details on housing-related provisions in the budget agreement, read a concise summary in <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2013/01/02/housing-industry-skates-through-cliff-deal/" target="_blank">The Wall Street Journal&#8217;s Developments blog</a>.</p>
<p><em>(Photo of the <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/vpickering/4810433202/" target="_blank">U.S. Capitol</a> is courtesy of Vpickering, via Flickr.)</em></p>
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		<title>Rising Prices, Bidding Wars and Recovery: A Last Look at a Busy Year in Bay Area Real Estate</title>
		<link>http://blog.pacunion.com/rising-prices-bidding-wars-and-recovery-a-busy-year-in-bay-area-real-estate/</link>
		<comments>http://blog.pacunion.com/rising-prices-bidding-wars-and-recovery-a-busy-year-in-bay-area-real-estate/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Jan 2013 16:01:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Pacific Union</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Bay Area]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Conditions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pacific Union International]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2012]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2013]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bay area]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bidding wars]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[buyers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[homes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[housing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pacific Union]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[real estate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[recovery]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sellers]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.pacunion.com/?p=11460</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The new year dawns with bright prospects for Bay Area real estate, as 2012 led us into a stronger economy and a housing recovery. Here's a look back at the major moments from the past 12 months.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_11438" class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 310px;  border: 1px solid #dddddd; background-color: #f3f3f3; padding-top: 4px; margin: 10px; text-align:center; float: right;"><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/7376565@N04/2721324568/"><img class=" wp-image-11438 " title="CactusRock2" src="http://blog.pacunion.com/wp-content/uploads/CactusRock2-300x172.jpg" alt="A view of Cactus Rock in Oakland's Rockridge neighborhood." width="300" height="172" /></a><p style=' padding: 0 4px 5px; margin: 0;'  class="wp-caption-text">Homebuyers outnumbered sellers in 2012.</p></div>
<p>The new year dawns with bright prospects for an active and successful year in Bay Area real estate.</p>
<p>But 2013 comes after an awkward year of recovery. Buyers, champing at the bit after a half-decade of retrenchment and recession, were forced to compete with each other for a limited supply of homes as sellers held out for higher prices after years of declines. Bidding wars became commonplace.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s a look back at the busy year that just ended:</p>
<p><strong>JANUARY</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>The latest jobs data shows the <a href="http://blog.pacunion.com/ca-jobs-report-economy-inching-upward/" target="_blank">first signs of economic recovery</a>, with California&#8217;s unemployment rate falling to 11.1 percent in December 2011, the second month in a row the number declined. (Quick jump ahead: by <a href="http://blog.pacunion.com/strong-jobs-report-helps-ring-in-new-year/" target="_blank">November 2012</a> the unemployment rate had dropped further, to 9.8 percent.)</li>
<li>Pacific Union International&#8217;s <a href="http://blog.pacunion.com/bay-area-real-estate-market-report/" target="_blank">Q4 2011 Real Estate Report</a> is released. In it we declare that 2012 &#8220;could be one of the finest times in the past twenty years to be a buyer of real estate,&#8221; with low home prices and exceptionally low interest rates. We were right on the money.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>FEBRUARY</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Sellers are urged to <a href="http://blog.pacunion.com/real-estate-market-its-time-for-sellers-to-join-the-party/" target="_blank">&#8220;join the party&#8221;</a> as the number of homes under contract jumps significantly. In Marin County, homes under contract were up an astounding 82 percent from the start of the year.</li>
<li>A look at the math shows that historically low interest rates give homebuyers an <a href="http://blog.pacunion.com/100000-reasons-to-buy-now-even-in-a-seller%e2%80%99s-market/" target="_blank">extra $100,000 in purchasing power</a>. (And it still holds true today.)</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>MARCH</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://blog.pacunion.com/bay-area-rental-bubble-why-buying-might-be-better/" target="_blank">Rental rates</a> are rising precipitously across the Bay Area &#8212; up 16 percent in San Francisco &#8212; making buying a home an even more attractive option.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>APRIL</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Pacific Union gets kudos from our peers with the release of a Real Trends survey showing that our real estate professionals are the <a href="http://blog.pacunion.com/pacific-union-agents-rank-5th-nationwid/" target="_blank">fifth most productive</a> in the United States and a report from Real Estate Magazine naming us one of the nation&#8217;s top &#8220;<a href="http://blog.pacunion.com/real-estate-power-broker/" target="_blank">Power Brokers</a>.&#8221;</li>
<li>Buyer demand in the first quarter drives an <a href="http://blog.pacunion.com/quarterlyreportq1-2012/" target="_blank">increase in the number of homes sold</a> in all seven of Pacific Union&#8217;s Bay Area regions.</li>
<li>The upcoming <a href="http://blog.pacunion.com/anericas-cup-a-draw-for-s-f-homebuyers/" target="_blank">America&#8217;s Cup</a> yacht races are fueling a boom in San Francisco real estate as buyers jockey for homes with commanding views of San Francisco Bay.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>MAY</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Homes are <a href="http://blog.pacunion.com/bay-area-homes-more-affordable-than-ever/" target="_blank">more affordable than ever</a>, according to a report from the California Association of Realtors. The percentage of households that could afford to purchase a median-priced, single-family home in the Bay Area rose to 45 percent in the first quarter, a record high.</li>
<li>Rising home sales and prices make clear the housing recovery is on solid footing in the Bay Area, according to our own <a href="http://blog.pacunion.com/may-real-estate-market-update/" target="_blank">monthly market analysis</a> and a report from the <a href="http://blog.pacunion.com/april-2012-home-sales/" target="_blank">California Association of Realtors</a>.</li>
<li><a href="http://blog.pacunion.com/lake-tahoe/" target="_blank">Pacific Union expands</a> in Northern California with the opening of offices in the North Lake Tahoe area.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>JUNE</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>The Bay Area housing market and overall economic scene continue to <a href="http://blog.pacunion.com/real-estate-up/" target="_blank">set the pace for the national recovery</a>, and sometimes that means standing in contrast to gloomy national reports.</li>
<li>We&#8217;re pleased to report that Pacific Union is <a href="http://blog.pacunion.com/pupm/" target="_blank">expanding again</a>, this time launching Pacific Union International Property Management Inc.</li>
<li>Kudos continue: A list of the <a href="http://blog.pacunion.com/pacific-union-top-sales-honors/" target="_blank">top 1,000 real estate professionals and teams</a> in the United States includes three from Pacific Union.</li>
<li>Reports in the national news media declare that &#8220;<a href="http://blog.pacunion.com/housing-bust-is-over/" target="_blank">the housing bust is over</a>,&#8221; which comes as no surprise to homebuyers and sellers in the Bay Area.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>JULY</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Pacific Union&#8217;s exclusive interview with <a href="http://blog.pacunion.com/stephen-levy-interview/" target="_blank">economist Stephen Levy</a> makes clear that the economic recovery has reached all corners of the Bay Area and is enduring.</li>
<li>Our <a href="http://blog.pacunion.com/pacific-union-quarterly-report-q2-2012/" target="_blank">Q2 Real Estate Report</a> shows home sales are up more than 30 percent across the Bay Area, foretelling a strong year ahead.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>AUGUST</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>The Bay Area continues to lead <a href="http://blog.pacunion.com/bay-area-job-market-leads-state/" target="_blank">California’s economic recovery</a>, and that’s good news for the region’s housing market.</li>
<li>In a sign of how tight the housing market has become, the <a href="http://blog.pacunion.com/oakland-tight-real-estate-market/" target="_blank">Oakland metro area is No. 1</a> in the nation for the greatest reduction of homes for sale. It&#8217;s also No. 1 for the shortest number of days on the market.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>SEPTEMBER</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://blog.pacunion.com/august-foreclosures-bay-area/" target="_blank">Foreclosure activity</a> drops sharply across the Bay Area, led by San Francisco, where notices of default — the first step in the foreclosure process — fall 71 percent from a year ago.</li>
<li>The Bay Area’s <a href="http://blog.pacunion.com/august-bay-area-home-sales-highest-in-6-years/" target="_blank">red-hot real estate market</a> continues to set records, with August home sales at a six-year high.</li>
<li>Home ownership can bring <a href="http://blog.pacunion.com/big-savings-in-buying-a-home-versus-renting/" target="_blank">big savings</a> when compared with the cost of renting in San Francisco and Oakland, according to a report from the online real estate search service Trulia.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>OCTOBER</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>The <a href="http://blog.pacunion.com/east-bay-economic-recovery/" target="_blank">East Bay housing market</a> has trailed San Francisco in its recovery from the recession, but recent reports suggest the region’s economy is poised for substantial growth in the coming year.</li>
<li>Our Q3 Real Estate Report has <a href="http://blog.pacunion.com/quarterly-report-q3-2012/" target="_blank">plenty of good news</a> in it: Home values are rising, foreclosures are dropping, and housing starts are increasing across the Bay Area. We’re on track to see the best year in housing since 2005 in many regions.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>NOVEMBER</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>The monthly Case-Shiller home prices report confirms that <a href="http://blog.pacunion.com/housing-market-rise-and-fall-and-rise-again/" target="_blank">home prices continue to rise</a> at a steady pace across the Bay Area as well as nationwide, but a close look at the numbers also reveals much more: the extent of the housing market collapse five years ago and the strength of the recovery now under way.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>DECEMBER</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>The supply of homes for sale in the Bay Area remains severely constrained, but <a href="http://blog.pacunion.com/supply-of-homes-tight-in-bay-area-but-buyers-eager/" target="_blank">that hasn’t held back buyers</a>. They’re snapping up properties at a pace we haven’t seen in at least six years.</li>
<li><a href="http://blog.pacunion.com/what-san-franciscos-tech-boom-means-for-residential-real-estate/" target="_blank">Tech companies</a> like Pinterest and Square are increasingly choosing San Francisco over Silicon Valley for office space, and that&#8217;s having a direct effect on residential real estate in the city.</li>
<li>The Bay Area continues to drive <a href="http://blog.pacunion.com/strong-jobs-report-helps-ring-in-new-year/" target="_blank">California’s economic recovery</a>, with the state’s unemployment rate dropping below 10 percent for the first time in nearly four years. That’s a good sign for real estate markets.</li>
</ul>
<p><em>(Photo of <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/7376565@N04/2721324568/" target="_blank">Oakland&#8217;s Rockridge neighborhood</a> courtesy of Rbotman01, via Flickr.)</em></p>
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		<title>Bay Area Job Growth, Healthy Housing Markets May Outshine Washington&#8217;s Fiscal Cliff</title>
		<link>http://blog.pacunion.com/bay-area-job-growth-healthy-housing-markets-outshine-fiscal-cliff/</link>
		<comments>http://blog.pacunion.com/bay-area-job-growth-healthy-housing-markets-outshine-fiscal-cliff/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 Nov 2012 16:31:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Pacific Union</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Bay Area]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Conditions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alameda County]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bay area]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CCSCE]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Congress]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Contra Costa County]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EDD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Employment Development Department]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fiscal cliff]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[high tech]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[housing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[interest rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[jobs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marin County]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mark McLaughlin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mortgage]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Napa County]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pacific Union International]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[real estate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[San Francisco County]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[San Mateo County]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.pacunion.com/?p=10212</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Dire warnings of the approaching “fiscal cliff” in Washington obscure solid economic fundamentals in the Bay Area that point to continued economic recovery in 2013 and equally strong forecasts for our housing markets.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/68751915@N05/6809000715/in/photostream"><img style=' float: right; padding: 4px; margin: 0 0 2px 7px;'  class="alignright size-medium wp-image-10218" title="MoneyHouse" src="http://blog.pacunion.com/wp-content/uploads/MoneyHouse-268x300.jpg" alt="Imae of a house made of hundred-dollar bills" width="268" height="300" /></a>Like the Grinch at Christmas, dire warnings of an approaching “fiscal cliff” threaten to steal any goodwill remaining from the November elections and turn the holiday season into a political nail-biter.</p>
<p>And while the possibility of steep tax increases and spending cuts looms large, many political observers expect that Republicans and Democrats will ultimately hammer out an accord before such results take effect &#8212; if only to avoid the bipartisan rage that would follow.</p>
<p>Lost in all this talk is concrete evidence that California’s economy is firing on all cylinders, putting the state in the enviable position of <a href="http://www.lao.ca.gov/reports/2012/bud/fiscal-outlook/fiscal-outlook-2012.aspx" target="_blank">forecasting budget surpluses</a> in the next few years.</p>
<p>Job growth in the state, and especially in the Bay Area, continues to expand much faster than the national average. With a clear link between strong employment and healthy housing markets, in the Bay Area we&#8217;re seeing solid growth forecasts for regional real estate in 2013.</p>
<p>Consider:</p>
<p>California&#8217;s unemployment rate continues to decline, falling to 10.1 percent in October, down from 11.5 percent a year earlier, according to the state Employment Development Department (EDD). New jobs totaled 45,800 in October, on top of a revised 32,000 new jobs in September.</p>
<p>The Bay Area, meanwhile, had the lowest unemployment rates in the state in October &#8211; 5.8 percent in Marin County, 6.3 percent in San Mateo County, 6.8 percent in San Francisco, and 6.9 percent in Napa County. Other counties weren&#8217;t far behind: 7.6 percent in Sonoma County, 8.5 percent in Contra Costa County, and 8.6 percent in Alameda County.</p>
<p><strong>JOB GROWTH TAKES OFF, AS PREDICTED, IN EAST BAY</strong><br />
More significantly, the Bay Area led the state in new-job creation, with 7,800 new jobs last month in San Francisco, Marin, and San Mateo counties, and 3,200 new jobs in Alameda and Contra Costa counties. Over the past year, those five counties alone accounted for 52,000 new jobs.</p>
<p>&#8220;The best news in the October (jobs) report is that <a href="http://blog.pacunion.com/wp-content/uploads/LevyOctoberJobs.pdf" target="_blank">job growth strengthened</a> outside the Bay Area and broadened beyond the tech sector,&#8221; according to Stephen Levy, director of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy (<a href="http://ccsce.com/" target="_blank">CCSCE</a>), in Palo Alto.</p>
<p>&#8220;October was a true recovery month for &#8230; the East Bay in the Bay Area and areas outside the large coastal regions including Sacramento and some San Joaquin Valley counties,&#8221; Levy wrote  in a report analyzing the EDD’s employment numbers. &#8220;Moreover, there were increases in retail jobs, finance jobs and jobs in construction and tourism to go along with job growth associated with technology and foreign trade.&#8221; (Levy had predicted solid growth in the East Bay in a <a href="http://blog.pacunion.com/stephen-levy-interview/" target="_blank">June interview</a> with Pacific Union International.)</p>
<p>Levy noted that the &#8221;<span style="color: #000000;">Bay Area’s high tech centers are likely to be among the nation’s job growth leaders when the October data is compiled nationally, with very strong gains of 3.5% in the San Jose metro area and 3.4% in the San Francisco area, more than double the national growth rate.&#8221;</span></p>
<p><strong>BIG JUMP IN HOME SALES, PRICES</strong><br />
<a href="http://blog.pacunion.com/pacific-union-october-real-estate-report/" target="_blank">The region&#8217;s real estate markets</a> mirror those strong results. In October the Bay Area saw median sold prices for single-family homes <a href="http://blog.pacunion.com/home-prices-increase-inventory-falls/" target="_blank">jump 28 percent</a> over the previous year, and sales increased 24 percent in the same period.</p>
<p>Record-low interest rates provide an extra incentive for homebuyers. Last week the <a href="http://www.sfgate.com/default/article/30-year-mortgage-rate-hits-record-3-31-percent-4062381.php" target="_blank">average rate on a 30-year home</a> loan fell to 3.31 percent, according to Freddie Mac, the lowest level in records dating back to 1971.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, talk of the impending fiscal cliff dominates headlines, even as economists say that cliff is really more of a slope &#8212; since the $500 billion in spending cuts and tax increases doesn&#8217;t hit all at once on Jan. 1.</p>
<p>As President Obama and Congress discuss a way around the fiscal showdown, the chance that the current mortgage interest deduction could be scaled back or even repealed remains one of the biggest concerns for real estate professionals.</p>
<div class="simplePullQuote"><p>Everything we see points to continued growth in our Bay Area housing markets.<br />
&#8211; Mark McLaughlin, Pacific Union CEO</p>
<div class="quote2"></div></div>
<p>The deduction is capped at $1 million today, but analysts say the cap might be rolled back to $500,000, or perhaps eliminated for second homes. Few, though, believe Obama and Congress would make such an aggressive move and once again upset a housing recovery.</p>
<p>Still, the CCSCE&#8217;s Levy said it&#8217;s too soon to fret about what-ifs.</p>
<p>&#8220;I would not worry if a deal is not done by year-end,&#8221; Levy told Pacific Union recently. &#8220;I expect (the Treasury Department) to advise employers not to change withholding immediately and expect everyone to see if a deal can be worked out early next year, with any changes retroactive to Jan. 1.&#8221;</p>
<p>Mark McLaughlin, CEO of Pacific Union, noted that the Bay Area&#8217;s economic fundamentals are the envy of the rest of the country. With the almost-certain likelihood of a compromise in Washington, &#8220;we see a continued recovery ahead &#8212; one getting stronger month by month,&#8221; he said.</p>
<p>&#8220;Our 2013 outlook is based on the Bay Area&#8217;s ability to generate high-salary jobs and continued growth in high-tech industries, trade, and tourism,&#8221; McLaughlin said. &#8220;Everything we see points to continued growth in our Bay Area housing markets.&#8221;</p>
<p><em>(<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/68751915@N05/6809000715/in/photostream" target="_blank">Image </a>courtesy 401(k) 2012, via Flickr.)</em></p>
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		<title>Petaluma Celebrates Ghoulies and Ghosties and Things That Go Bump in the Night</title>
		<link>http://blog.pacunion.com/petaluma-celebrates-halloween/</link>
		<comments>http://blog.pacunion.com/petaluma-celebrates-halloween/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Oct 2012 15:01:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Pacific Union</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Bay Area neighborhoods]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sonoma County]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[101]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[D Street]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Day of the Dead]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Halloween]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[housing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Petaluma]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Petaluma Arts Center]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Petaluma Boulevard]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Petaluma Pumpkin Patch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[pumpkins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[real estate]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.pacunion.com/?p=9358</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Petaluma is a city that knows how to celebrate Halloween. With a wealth of Halloween-themed events every year, Sonoma County's second largest city has become an annual autumnal destination for the young, and the young at heart.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_9359" class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 227px;  border: 1px solid #dddddd; background-color: #f3f3f3; padding-top: 4px; margin: 10px; text-align:center; float: right;"><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/scotthessphoto/6303093451/"><img class=" wp-image-9359" title="petaluma1" src="http://blog.pacunion.com/wp-content/uploads/petaluma1-217x300.jpg" alt="Characters at El Dia de los Muertos at the Petaluma Art Center, 2011." width="217" height="300" /></a><p style=' padding: 0 4px 5px; margin: 0;'  class="wp-caption-text">Happy faces at El Dia de los Muertos at the Petaluma Arts Center in 2011.</p></div>
<p>A century ago, <a href="http://www.pacunion.com/bay-area-real-estate/neighborhoods/sonoma-county/petaluma/" target="_blank">Petaluma</a> was rightly famous as the &#8220;World’s Egg Basket.&#8221; Today, chicken farms have given way to cattle ranches and vineyards, and <a href="http://www.pacunion.com/bay-area-real-estate/neighborhoods/sonoma-county/" target="_blank">Sonoma County</a>&#8216;s second largest city enjoys a reputation as a relaxed community that effortlessly blends rural and urban sensibilities.</p>
<p>But at this time of year, the atmosphere in Petaluma turns decidedly spooky.</p>
<p>Zombies and ghouls wander the streets. Conversations are punctuated with talk of seances and skeletons. And for just a few weeks, the only agricultural product that anyone cares about is the pumpkin.</p>
<p>Welcome to a city that knows how to celebrate Halloween!</p>
<p>As if driven by an unseen force, a variety of Halloween-themed events have accumulated over the years making Petaluma an annual autumnal destination for many. The young, and young at heart, who flock to the city are eager to flirt with what an old Scottish poem calls &#8220;ghoulies and ghosties and long-leggedy beasties and things that go bump in the night.&#8221;</p>
<p>D Street remains especially popular among the legions of costumed kids and grown-ups who take to Petaluma&#8217;s streets every Halloween in search of treats. Located on the west side of town, the street&#8217;s stately Victorians seem particularly suited to Halloween, and many residents go to great lengths to decorate their homes in the spirit of the holiday.</p>
<p><a href="http://voices.yahoo.com/bay-area-north-bay-town-kicks-ghoul-appeal-for-6912900.html" target="_blank">By one count</a>, each D Street home will hand out 2,000 pieces of candy to trick-or-treaters tonight alone.</p>
<p><strong>TRICK OR TREAT TRAIL</strong><br />
Other parts of town will draw crowds as well, with downtown merchants hosting a Trick 0r Treat Trail during the afternoon. Generally speaking, every neighborhood with more than two or three homes with kids will be Halloween central.</p>
<p>More than a dozen Halloween-themed festivals have already come and gone, including the Zombie Walk at Copperfield&#8217;s Books, but never fear: &#8220;<a href="http://www.petalumaartscouncil.org/" target="_blank">El Dia de los Muertos</a>&#8221; at the Petaluma Arts Center is still going strong and runs through Sunday. On Thursday it will feature a candlelight procession to a cemetery to honor loved ones who have died.</p>
<p>Then there are pumpkins &#8212; thousands of them. At this time of year, Petaluma is home to a half-dozen pumpkin farms. Most will close at the end of business today, but the sprawling <a href="http://www.petalumapumpkinpatch.com/cornmaze.htm" target="_blank">Petaluma Pumpkin Patch and Amazing Corn Maze</a> will stay open an extra day before calling it a season on Thursday.</p>
<p>For some folks in Sonoma County, the Petaluma Pumpkin Patch is known as much for the traffic congestion it causes on nearby Highway 101 as for its pumpkins, but <a href="http://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/20121028/ARTICLES/121029539/1033/news?Title=New-Hwy-101-lane-ends-Petaluma-Pumpkin-Patch-traffic-jamshttp://" target="_blank">this year was blessedly different</a>. Caltrans added a new lane from Rohnert Park to the Old Redwood Highway, and locals report that pumpkins and cars now peacefully co-exist.</p>
<p><strong>HALLOWEEN ONE OF MANY EVENTS</strong><br />
Halloween is just one of the many community events that add spice to daily life in Petaluma.</p>
<p>Built around a picturesque downtown retail district along Petaluma Boulevard, the city&#8217;s many ornate stone and brick buildings dating from the turn of the last century have earned it a National Register of Historic Places designation. The neighborhood boasts more than two dozen antique stores, attracting shoppers from across the Bay Area on weekends.</p>
<p>The Petaluma River is nearby, and a restored river walk has attracted new life to the area, now home to many art galleries and restaurants.</p>
<p><strong>&#8216;SMOKING HOT&#8217; REAL ESTATE MARKET</strong><br />
Many of Petaluma&#8217;s newer homes are located in neighborhoods east of 101, including the Kings Mill and Adobe Creek developments. Easy access to 101 &#8212; San Francisco is 32 miles to the south &#8212; has helped spur development in the area, resulting in a real estate market that is &#8220;smoking hot,&#8221; according to one of Pacific Union International&#8217;s top <a href="http://www.pacunion.com/bay-area-real-estate/neighborhoods/sonoma-county/" target="_blank">Sonoma County</a> real estate professionals.</p>
<p>As in other tight Bay Area real estate markets, many <a href="http://www.pacunion.com/bay-area-real-estate/neighborhoods/sonoma-county/petaluma/" target="_blank">Petaluma homes for sale</a> attract multiple offers. Median prices have been rising steadily all year, and by September the average sale price for a Petaluma home was $407,624, according to MLS data.</p>
<p>&#8220;It&#8217;s a case of supply and demand,&#8221; our Sonoma County real estate professional said. &#8220;There&#8217;s a high demand for homes in Petaluma, and the supply is tight.&#8221;</p>
<p><em>(<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/scotthessphoto/6303093451/" target="_blank">Photo</a> courtesy of Scott Hess, via Flickr.)</em></p>
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